No doubt you have been watching the political knife fighting going on over the past few weeks, between the Republicans and the Democrats with an Independent here and there thrown in for good measure. Things have turned nasty in these closing weeks with one candidate even using the other candidates crippled wheel chair condition and the lawsuit he won, as negative political ad fodder (Texas gubernatorial race).
This is a serious year for Republicans who stand the chance to take over majority control of the U.S. Senate, giving them total control of Congress. What does that mean? The new Senate leader would likely be Mitch McConnell, who does have a good relationship with Speaker Boehner. I think they will agree upon most large pieces of legislation. However, that does not mean a lot of progress will be made. Look for President Obama to get out his veto hammer more than once, should the Republicans take the Senate. I quit making political predictions years ago, but I think that this election is really the Republicans to lose. Lets take a look at some of the key Senate races.
52-46-2. That's the makeup of the Senate right now. Democrats are in control with 52 seats and there are 2 independents that caucus with them, so really they have 54 votes to the Republicans 46.
Alaska
It's not often that our northern most state has a roll in changing the fate of the U.S. Senate, but this year it does. The heated (get it?) Senate race between the incumbent, Mark Begich (D) and the newcomer USMC Lt. Col. Dan Sullivan (R) have been neck and neck for weeks. As with a lot of these races, the Republican candidate has been surging in the past few weeks. Alaska tends to tip to the Republican side, but the polls are so close that its just barely within the margin of error on this one.
Colorado
This is another nail-biter that has seen the Republicans slightly surge in just the past few days. Corey Gardner (R) is challenging longtime Senator and political heir, Mark Udall (daddy Mo Udall was in the House for 30 years) to the fight of his life. Some polls have Gardner up over 7%.
Georgia
This is an open seat and both candidates are political neophytes. Republican David Perdue made his millions selling shoes, sort of, as he was an executive at Reebok in the late nineties. The Democrat is Michelle Nunn who has made her mark working in the non-profit world, organizing volunteers and not in a penny ante sort of way. Her group donated $635 million worth of labor. The race is way too close to call and Georgia is one of those goofy states that if one candidate doesn't garner 50% of the vote, no one wins and they have a re-vote. So it's likely that this one won’t be finished until after election day.
Iowa
Here we go again. Open seat. The Republican is Joni Ernst, the daughter of hog farmer, turned State Representative, turned lethal Senate candidate. The Democrat is Bruce Braley who has never done anything for motorcyclists. He was the run-away leader in this race for a long time, but Ernst has chipped away at the heir apparent and in many respects has bested him. Joni Ernst is leading in the polls and Michelle Obamas recent campaign trip for Braley, where she repeatedly called Bruce “Bailey” until she was corrected by the groaning crowd, did not have the desired effect. Too close to call, but Ernst is a relentless campaigner and is starting to pull away from her Democrat opponent.
Kansas
No one saw this coming as longtime career politician Pat Roberts, who was elected to the House in 1981 and is seeking his fourth term in the Senate, is also in the fight of his life. He has handily defeated every other candidate, so it was natural to assume this would be a walk in the park. Newcomer Greg Orman (D) the son of a Kansas furniture magnate, has proven to be the real deal. This race was all Roberts until his bumbled campaign let it get away from them. Too close to call but I think Roberts has seen his last days in the Hart Senate office building.
Louisiana
The Big Easy and bayou country might as well be on a different planet. The way of life and thinking down there is something else. This race is another one where the incumbent had an early lead and almost certain victory, but let that lead get away from them. Senator Mary Landrieu, another political legacy, had a commanding lead, but when news slipped that she does not even live in Louisiana anymore, the death march began. Poppa Moon Landrieu was a long time Mayor of New Orleans and master of persuasive politics. It was discovered that Senator Landrieu owns a share of a family estate, the same amount as all of her siblings and relatives. Louisianan's may be tolerant of much more than many of us, like say living in constant threat of flood and famine, but they don’t take kindly to deserters. The news about her lack of residency in her home state, has her branded and she is going down in flames. Bill Cassidy, the Republican, has been leading in the polls. However Louisiana is another state that if one candidate does not get 50% of the vote, they go to a run off on December 6th. Cassidy leads Landrieu in the run off polls by 7-8%.
New Hampshire
Jean Shaheen has been a friend to motorcyclists, but so has her opponent, Republican Scott Brown. Wait a minute... That Scott Brown? The former Senator from Massachusetts? Yep... Brown bought a home in New Hampshire last year for “strictly personal reasons”, hahaha. Brown has made the carpet bagging a non issue and is nipping at Shaheen in the polls. Shaheen will likely keep her seat, but just barely. Brown claims he has had roots in New Hampshire for the past nine generations and that seems to have calmed the skeptics. Watch this one closely.
North Carolina
The Tar Heel state is stuck in over drive. Kay Hagen the incumbent Democrat has been in the fight of her political career and she does it all with southern charm and grace, until you see her negative attack ads on her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis. Whoa! His negative ads are much better, to be fair. Tillis is a political dynamo, he helped engineer a Republican takeover of the State House and rose to Speaker in just a few short years. He has been stalwart for the conservative agenda. Hagen may hang onto the Senate job, but if she does it will be by the narrowest of margins. This election could go into a recount.
Watch these races closely. Like they say at the State Fair Demolition Derby - “You may pay for the whole seat, but you will only need the edge!”